The global memory shortage, which has already reduced supply of Mac mini and Mac Studio, is now expected to weigh heavily on the broader PC market, with IDC forecasting an 11.3% decline in global shipments for 2026.
According to IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate during the fourth quarter, when shipments are expected to fall 20% year over year, with no significant relief expected until the end of 2027. Average selling prices are rising and PC makers are struggling to maintain full product portfolios.
The first quarter of 2026 offered a deceptively encouraging signal, with shipments up 3% from the same period last year, but much of that strength was artificial; Individual and commercial buyers brought forward their purchases ahead of planned price increases and availability constraints. Some of this momentum from the first quarter carries over into the second quarter, but the remaining quarters are expected to deteriorate. IDC forecasts average sales price growth of 17% in 2026, and even if memory capacity increases over the next two years, prices are unlikely to return to 2025 levels. TrendForce previously warned that rising memory and processor costs could push consumer laptop prices up nearly 40% this year.
In this context, Apple’s MacBook Neo generated stronger-than-expected demand for laptops and prompted IDC to revise its forecast upwards. Launched in March at $599, the ‌MacBook Neo‌ pairs the A18 Pro chip with 8GB of memory and targets the sub-$700 laptop segment. This market represents approximately 75 million units per year, or nearly 40% of total laptop volume, a level historically dominated by Windows and ChromeOS devices.
The competitive ripple effects of the ‌MacBook Neo‌ go both ways. IDC said the device “puts real pressure on the entire PC ecosystem” and expects competitors to respond with new silicon, a more efficient operating system from Microsoft and aggressive promotional pricing. Competitive pressure from the ‌MacBook Neo‌ partially offsets broader price increases, keeping some low-cost laptop options alive, although the overall average selling price trajectory remains firmly upward.
While rising memory costs are pushing many PC vendors toward more expensive systems or forcing them to cut specifications to defend lower prices, Apple has moved in the opposite direction. The memory shortage has had a more direct impact on Apple’s high-end Mac models, with the ‌Mac mini‌ and ‌Mac Studio‌ models experiencing significant configuration cuts and shipping delays as the company struggles to secure supply.
