A new application could compete with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Mark Zuckerberg asked Meta to create a market prediction app, according to a report from The New York Times. The experimental app would be called “Arena” and could potentially compete with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Where trends go, Meta follows them.
Company insiders said it was a top priority for Zuckerberg and Meta. These same insiders claim that Meta plans to grow the app by leveraging its gigantic user base on platforms like Facebook and Instagram. Both Polymarket and Kalshi are over five years old and almost completely dominate the industry. Meta would therefore have a lot of catching up to do.
The New York Times also reported that the Arena app would likely rely on a video game-style points system, instead of money. If so, I don’t know who this is for. Would people earn stuff like stickers or badges? People use these platforms because they think they can make a lot of money betting on things like the temperature in Paris or doing insider trading. Badges won’t do the trick, which is why these same company insiders say Meta hasn’t ruled out the possible use of real money.
Meta has experimented with its own version of prediction markets in the past. There was the prediction market app Forecast, which opened in 2020 and closed in 2022. This allowed people to guess world events and used a points system instead of real money. It never really caught on.
This also isn’t the first time Meta and Zuckerberg have “paid homage” to something that was making waves elsewhere on the internet. Instagram Stories followed the success of Snapchat and Facebook Reels came after TikTok. Facebook Dating came long after the success of Tinder and other dating apps. The discussions came long after Twitter. You understand the gist.
Of course, Arena could be stuck in the experimental phase forever and might never see the light of day. We’ll just have to wait and see. Given Meta’s track record, they will release the app just before prediction markets are banned or severely regulated.
