Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says the real test of today’s WWDC keynote is whether Apple can deliver better AI experiences than Google using the same Gemini models.
Apple is using Google’s Gemini to support the revamped Siri and new Apple Intelligence features. According to Kuo in a new article on X, the main takeaway from WWDC won’t be the short-term market reaction after the event. It will be a question of whether Apple, using the same Gemini models, can deliver better AI applications, agent workflows, and hybrid on-device and cloud experiences than Google.
If the answer is yes, this would help prolong Apple’s “bull” case. If the answer is no, that implies that Apple’s ceiling is set by a model it doesn’t control. Kuo made this point by opposing the market sentiment that “Even if Apple is temporarily behind in AI, it will eventually catch up and take the lead.”
Still, Kuo believes Apple’s business momentum will remain strong through the end of the year, based on his latest supply chain audits, which he expects observers to present as “If Apple does well without AI, imagine once it has AI.” Other reports suggest that Apple’s long-term advantage may lie in on-device AI, with the company expected to show how its custom silicon allows it to process more AI queries directly on the device rather than in the cloud.
Kuo expects today’s announcements to have little impact on the direction of Apple’s stock price in the second half. Regardless of what Apple says at WWDC, he argues, the positive stock price trend in the second half of 2026 is unlikely to change as long as the master narrative remains intact.
The long-term risk is more acute. If Apple failed to surpass Google with Gemini, Kuo says the stock wouldn’t necessarily turn bearish, but the assumption that Apple “will eventually come out of this” would begin to come under increasing scrutiny. According to him, the duration of the bullish narrative beyond 2026 is what is worth watching closely.
