The Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) have opened investigations into former Congressman George Santos regarding allegations of insider trading, according to NPR. The alleged ploy was both ridiculous and brazen, a hallmark of Santos.
Here’s how it would have happened. Santos allegedly toyed with the Kalshi betting market by making a video indicating he would attend President Trump’s State of the Union address in February. “I’m going to be here for the State of the Union in the gallery, guys,” he said in a video originally posted on X.
Union Status Update! pic.twitter.com/y9nrYpCyU4
– George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 23, 2026
Punters from Kalshi and Polymarket had a busy day predicting who would attend the SOTU speech. Santos’ video increased the chances of his presence. This means that people who bet against his appearance would win a tidy sum. You know where this is going.
He didn’t show up. “Watching SOTU from an airport TV was not part of the plan! FML,” Santos wrote on X. He posted this while Trump was speaking, so the chances of him appearing at the address plummeted.
Watching SOTU from an airport television was not part of the plan! FML 😡🤬
– George Santos (@Georgesantos) February 24, 2026
However, there is something he didn’t say about X. Santos allegedly made a bet on Kalshi that he wasn’t going to attend, according to three people with direct knowledge of the trades who spoke to NPR. These sources claim he made tens of thousands of dollars watching airport television. “FML” indeed.
Kalshi detected the transactions, froze his account, and reported the incident to the DOJ and CFTC. The organizations have not released an update on the current status of these cases. Santos, for his part, played dumb and said NPR that he had no idea that there was an active investigation into his conduct in Kalshi. “I’m not saying yes, I’m not saying no,” he replied when asked if he had a Kalshi account.
He also suggested that Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara is a “compatriot Brazilian” and personal friend. Reports have indicated that Santos does not, in fact, know Lara. Santos is the son of Brazilian immigrants, but he was born in New York. He also lies about just about everything.
His lies finally caught up with him. Santos was charged with 13 counts of wire fraud, money laundering and stealing money from political donors while he was a member of Congress. He was expelled from Congress and sentenced to more than seven years in prison. Trump commuted his sentence (the game recognizes the game) and therefore only served four months behind bars. Now he’s back (allegedly) doing this stuff. It’s also on Cameo for around $300 apiece, to satisfy “fans looking to add a touch of Santos sparkle to their special occasions.”
This is another caveat that explains the rise of online gambling platforms. If people can fake something for money, they will. This is pretty scary when you consider that people bet on real-world events that affect millions of people, like the outcome of wars and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
Santos is an easy punching bag, much like how he has spent the last few years physically embodying Pinocchio. However, I find it a little rich that the DOJ and the CFTC singled him out for insider trading when, you know, it’s pretty much an epidemic in the entire political system.
President Trump and his entourage are perhaps the most compelling example. Throughout his second term, traders tended to place bets totaling millions of dollars just before he made major announcements. THE BBC followed constant spikes in transactions timed hours or minutes before a major announcement was made via social media or a television interview.
