In a collaborative effort, China and several Central Asian countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, are developing a constellation of satellites specifically to deal with natural disasters that could occur in the region. With just five satellites or as many as 1,024, the “Tianwu Constellation” satellites will collect and share remote sensing data from space, which should help better assess the potential for earthquakes, glacial floods and agricultural problems such as pests. Many of these events could be caused by climate change.
According to the scientists leading the project, the collected satellite data will be processed and fed into an artificial intelligence model, hosted in a data center in Xinjiang. The idea is to train this AI model on geological disasters and, ultimately, enable predictive measurements. Real-time monitoring should also enable advanced reporting of events primarily focused on local mountain ranges and glaciers. These glaciers are believed to have melted at a rate of 20 to 40% in recent decades, particularly on the Tibetan plateau. A dramatic loss of ice could exacerbate the region’s economic, environmental and social challenges due to sea level rise and a resulting significant reduction in resources. This is not the first time a satellite has been used in this way, China’s advanced GPS alternative is not just for navigation, BeiDou – like Tianwu – is also used to monitor and respond to natural disasters.
Are there risks of espionage?
While this effort is laudable, there are privacy concerns at play. No information has been shared about what data, images, and media the satellites might collect or exactly how AI solutions might process them — nor is there any guarantee about where the satellites will look. China’s Yaogan-41 geostationary satellite, launched in 2023, has implications for monitoring the greater Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. Experts believe the country could use it to spy on both the Indo-Pacific region and U.S. assets in the region. While it doesn’t claim this is definitively how it will be used, this new joint satellite constellation poses similar risks. China has let AI fully control a satellite in the past, mostly as an experiment to see what would happen, and it has monitored unusual targets.
The US Space Force has previously shared concerns over the expansion of China’s spy satellite fleet. The classified optical satellite Yaogan-41, a trio of Yaogan-39 reconnaissance units, could be used for espionage purposes. In response to these earlier launches, U.S. military leaders are considering “developing proficiency” in countering space-based land warfare. Given that researchers have managed to develop a stunning spy laser capable of reading text from almost a kilometer and a half away, it is not unreasonable to assume that satellites could be equipped with comparable technologies or acquire highly detailed images from above.
