Apple’s September 9 announcement of the iPhone could become a negative catalyst for the stock, warns KeyBanc Capital Markets.
In a research note consulted by Investir.comKeyBanc said the event could motivate investors to weigh pricing decisions against the impact of rising costs on demand and margins. KeyBanc added that Apple faced the choice of either raising prices broadly to offset gross margin pressure, which could hurt unit volumes and triggering “sticker shock,” or raising prices more selectively.
This could prompt a closer look at margins and raise the prospect of further price hikes down the road. The company maintained an “underweight” rating on Apple and a price target of $250, compared to a stock price of $324.96 at press time.
The total iPhone 18 lineup of KeyBanc models is approximately 80 million units in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and first quarter of fiscal 2027, up from approximately 91 million units a year earlier. The company attributed most of the decline to the absence of a base iPhone 18 model in this part of the product cycle, with higher prices and a richer product lineup expected to partly offset the decline in volumes.
KeyBanc also expects a $150 price increase for the iPhone 18 Pro, bringing it to $1,249, and a $200 increase for the iPhone 18 Pro Max, bringing it to $1,399. The company expects the foldable “iPhone Ultra” to start at $2,199.
KeyBanc also highlighted a historical trend of Apple shares weakening around iPhone announcements, with the stock seeing an average decline of 0.72% on the day of the announcement over the past five years and a decline of 1.22% five trading days later. Apple’s “Surprise and Shine” event begins at 10 a.m. PT on Wednesday, September 9.
